Projections of temperature extremes based on preferred CMIP5 models: a case study in the Kaidu-Kongqi River basin in Northwest China

The extreme temperature has more outstanding impact on ecology and water resources in arid regions than the average temperature. Using downscaled daily data from 21 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) models of NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) observation data, this paper analyzed changes temporal spatiotemporal variation extremes, i.e., maximum (Tmax) minimum (Tmin), Kaidu-Kongqi River basin over period 2020–2050 based evaluation preferred Multi-Model Ensemble (MME). Results showed that Partial Least Square ensemble mean participated by Preferred Models (PM-PLS) was better representing change spatial distribution extremes during 1961–2005 chosen to project future change. In 2020–2050, increasing rate Tmax (Tmin) under RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 will be 2.0 (1.6) times RCP4.5, Tmin larger each corresponding RCP. keep contributing global warming Tmax. characteristics two RCPs overall same; but compared baseline (1986–2005), increments plain area those mountainous area. With emission concentration increased, however, response sensitive area, equivalently impacts induced universal far-reaching. indicate large increases magnitude may occur future. projections can provide scientific basis for land plan management disaster prevention mitigation inland river basin.